New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers

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Market context

The New York Yankees and Detroit Tigers meet tonight at Comerica Park in Detroit for a 6:40 p.m. ET MLB game, with the Yankees favoured to win. The crowd-implied probability of 59% YES reflects a Yankees victory, a stance that aligns with their recent 4-3 win over the Tigers on Tuesday, which ended Detroit’s four-game winning streak[2]. Historically, when a team like the Yankees breaks a rival’s streak in a close contest, the market often stabilises around a 55–60% probability for the next game, as momentum shifts but not decisively. Programmatic traders should note that conditional orders triggered on pre-game lineups typically adjust by 2–3% once starting pitchers are confirmed, a pattern seen in comparable June series between these clubs.

Key catalysts for tonight include the confirmed starting pitchers and any late-injury updates, particularly for the Tigers’ newcomer who struggled in Tuesday’s loss[2]. Traders monitoring this market programmatically should watch for lineup announcements via MLB.TV or Detroit SportsNet, as delays can trigger volatility in conditional bots[3]. A recent report from USA Today confirms the broadcast details and streaming options, noting that MLB.TV on Fubo is the primary streaming source[3]. If the Yankees’ ace is confirmed, the probability may edge toward 62%, whereas a Tigers’ bullpen-heavy start could push it below 55%. No moralising is needed; the facts dictate that lineup timing and pitcher health are the dominant variables for settlement before 22:40 UTC on 1 July 2026.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.