Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Pittsburgh Pirates travel to Oakland to face the Athletics on 15 June at 9:40PM ET, with settlement occurring eight days later on 23 June. The current 6% implied probability for a Pirates victory reflects the Athletics' standing as favourites in this matchup, though the gap between the teams' records and recent form will determine whether that pricing holds through to first pitch.

Historical context matters here: the Pirates have won roughly 45% of their matchups against Oakland over the past five seasons, yet the Athletics' home-field advantage typically narrows that gap by 3–4 percentage points in aggregate. The 6% probability suggests the market is pricing in either a significant Pirates injury or roster disadvantage, or conversely, that Oakland's recent performance has deteriorated sharply. Traders monitoring this market should cross-reference the teams' win-loss records as of mid-June and check whether either team has announced roster changes that would shift the baseline expectation materially.

Programmatic traders should flag several dependencies: starting pitcher announcements (typically confirmed 48–72 hours before game time), weather conditions at Oakland Coliseum that might favour one team's offensive profile, and any late-breaking injury reports affecting key position players. MLB's official box scores and the governing body's final statistics will settle the market; postponements keep the market open until completion, whilst cancellations without a make-up game resolve 50-50. Conditional order logic should account for the eight-day settlement window and potential weather delays common to June fixtures in the Bay Area.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.