Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| KFUM-Kameratene Oslo O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| KFUM-Kameratene Oslo O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Kristiansund BK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| KFUM-Kameratene Oslo 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| KFUM-Kameratene Oslo 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Kristiansund BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-1.5) | 0% |
| Kristiansund BK (-1.5) | 0% |
| KFUM-Kameratene Oslo (-2.5) | 0% |
| Kristiansund BK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KFUM-Kameratene Oslo O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kristiansund BK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Kristiansund BK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Kristiansund BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Kristiansund BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| KFUM-Kameratene Oslo 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| KFUM-Kameratene Oslo 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Kristiansund BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
KFUM Oslo are facing Kristiansund BK in an Eliteserien meeting that sits inside the league’s relegation battle, with both clubs level on 12 points and separated only by goal difference in recent table snapshots. That makes a “more markets” line on a prediction market especially sensitive to late football-specific filters such as extra player props, booking counts, or alternate goal lines, because the venue and the match state can change the available contract set quickly. Historical comparisons point to a moderately open fixture rather than a dead one: the head-to-head record is close, recent meetings have included a 1-1 draw and a 0-5 away win for KFUM, and published previews split between a narrow KFUM edge and a low-scoring draw profile.[4][13][17][18]
For a power user approaching this programmatically, the key is that a 0% yes price means the market is currently assigning no probability to any additional listed market being resolved in the affirmative, so the practical question is whether the exchange later adds, amends, or expands contract definitions before the 15:00 UTC settlement window closes. Watch official line-up releases, referee or VAR-related updates, fixture changes, and any late market-creation activity around the match page itself; live score services already show the game scheduled and in progress on 2 August, which means the relevant catalyst window is pre-kick-off and very short.[1][4][6][15] For bots or conditional-order logic, that usually means polling for market metadata changes, not just price moves, and treating team-news and schedule confirmations as the main dependency signals rather than broader season form.[12][17]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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