Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Voluntari O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Voluntari O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Botoşani O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Botoşani O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Voluntari 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Botoşani 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Voluntari 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Botoşani 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| FC Botoşani 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| FC Voluntari (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Botoşani (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Voluntari (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Botoşani (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Voluntari O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Botoşani O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Voluntari 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Botoşani 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Voluntari 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
FC Voluntari and FC Botoşani have already played out a 2-2 draw in the opening SuperLiga fixture of the 2026–2027 season, with goals from Diarra (autogol), Merloi, Dumiter, and Mitrov defining a dramatic encounter that opened the campaign [2]. The match took place on 17 July 2026 at 17:30 local time, confirming the game has concluded and the settlement window is now active [1]. With the result known, the 0% YES crowd-implied probability for any “more markets” outcome likely reflects a binary resolution where the specific condition failed to trigger, a pattern consistent with post-match markets that settle immediately once the underlying event is finalised.
Historically, Romanian SuperLiga “more markets” tied to goal thresholds or specific event triggers settle definitively once the final whistle blows, and a 0% probability post-match typically indicates the condition was not met in the 2-2 result. Comparable cases from previous seasons show that markets dependent on third or fourth goals beyond a set threshold, or on specific player actions, often collapse to zero once the match ends without the trigger occurring, especially when the aggregate goal count or event type does not align with the market’s criteria.
Traders should monitor the official settlement confirmation from the exchange and cross-reference the match report for any disputed goals or VAR overturns that could alter the outcome, though no such anomalies have been reported in the initial coverage [2]. The primary catalyst is the exchange’s finalisation of the result, as the game’s conclusion removes all live dependencies; any conditional orders or copy-trading bots configured for this market should now be evaluated for settlement rather than execution, given the event is complete and the probability is fixed.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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