Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Independiente Santa Fe (-1.5) | 100% |
| Independiente Santa Fe (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Independiente Santa Fe O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Independiente Santa Fe O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Independiente Santa Fe O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Independiente Santa Fe 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Independiente Santa Fe 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Caracas FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Caracas FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Independiente Santa Fe 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Independiente Santa Fe 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| Caracas FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Caracas FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Caracas FC’s second leg against Independiente Santa Fe is the kind of knockout tie where the **“More Markets”** layer only appears if the match itself produces enough trading surface to support derivatives such as goals, cards, corners, and team-specific props. Santa Fe took a 2-0 first-leg lead in Bogotá, with the aggregate standing 2-0 heading into the return leg in Venezuela, so the base case for any programme watching this market is that the operator needed an active, settled match with sufficient live data to list additional markets at all.[1][2][7][11]
For historical framing, a 2-0 first-leg advantage in CONMEBOL knockout football usually pushes prices towards conservative outcomes: the leading side can slow tempo, while the trailing side must take more risk, which can inflate in-play volatility even when the pre-match balance is one-sided. That is the key read for a bot or copy-trading system: “More Markets” availability is often more about execution depth and feed continuity than about the headline win probability, so a 0% YES crowd price should be treated as a signal that the specific market either never opened, never met liquidity thresholds, or was not resolved within the settlement window.[1][2][11]
The practical catalysts to watch are straightforward: team news, venue confirmation, and whether the match starts on schedule at 00:30 UTC on 31 July, because any delay, abandonment, or data-feed issue can determine whether extra markets are posted and settled cleanly.[3][7][11] Recent previews and live listings consistently place the fixture in Caracas with Santa Fe protecting the aggregate lead, which means programmatic approaches should monitor official line-ups, the match clock, and market availability in real time rather than assuming that “More Markets” will mirror the main match book.[3][7][11]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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