IF Brommapojkarna vs. IK Sirius - More Markets

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the Allsvenskan fixture between IF Brommapojkarna and IK Sirius at Grimsta IP in Stockholm, scheduled for 14:30 UTC on 12 July 2026. Programmatic traders evaluating this market will note the 0% crowd-implied probability for the YES outcome, suggesting the specific condition being queried is statistically negligible based on current sentiment.

Historical head-to-head data frames this near-zero probability as consistent with long-term trends rather than an anomaly. Across 23 matches since 2007, IK Sirius has won 12 times while Brommapojkarna secured only 7 victories, with an average of 3.38 goals scored per direct encounter [6][7]. A bot executing conditional orders would likely treat this 0% signal as a reliable filter, given Sirius’s dominance in the fixture and the high average goal count which typically reduces the likelihood of specific low-probability outcomes like clean sheets or exact scorelines.

Traders should monitor the official lineups released shortly before kick-off, as player availability directly impacts secondary markets. The match begins at 14:30 UTC, meaning any late injury news or tactical shifts announced by either club between now and the settlement window could alter the probability landscape for correlated bets [1][2]. Since the settlement window closes at 14:30 UTC on the same day, automated systems must execute or cancel positions before the whistle, relying on real-time feeds rather than post-match analysis.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track IF Brommapojkarna vs. IK Sirius - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.