Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| GAIS O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| GAIS 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| GAIS (-1.5) | 0% |
| Halmstads BK (-1.5) | 0% |
| GAIS (-2.5) | 0% |
| Halmstads BK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| GAIS O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| GAIS O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Halmstads BK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| GAIS 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| GAIS 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Halmstads BK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| GAIS 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Halmstads BK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
GAIS and Halmstads BK are due to meet in Allsvenskan on 26 July at 10:30 AM ET, with the “more markets” contract settling on whether additional props or side-markets appear around that fixture. With crowd-implied probability at **0% YES**, the market is effectively saying no qualifying expansion was visible before the cutoff, so a programmatic trader would normally treat it as a stale-or-closed listing unless the exchange itself reopens the window or adds eligible markets in the match package.
For context, comparable “more markets” contracts in football tend to resolve on operational rather than sporting signals: the addition of a new player prop, goal-line, cards, or derivative market usually matters more than the result of the fixture itself. In tooling terms, that means a bot or watchlist should monitor the event object, not just the fixture, and compare the live market catalogue against the settlement rule set at intervals near lock. A 0% read is most often consistent with no new qualifying market having been published, rather than a judgement on the match’s sporting likelihood.
The main catalysts are scheduling and feed changes: late market creation, a trading pause, a refreshed slate from the venue/provider, or a dependency such as lineups and officiating markets being enabled before kick-off. If a recent announcement from the league, data feed, or exchange altered the market bundle, that would be the key trigger to re-check; otherwise, once the scheduled match window passes, the contract generally stays anchored to the pre-match product set rather than the on-pitch scoreline.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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