Mjallby AIF vs. IK Sirius

Platform comparison

Market context

Mjallby AIF will host IK Sirius in the Swedish Allsvenskan on Saturday, 15 August 2026. The match settlement window closes at 13:00 UTC that day, aligning with the fixture's scheduled kick-off. This is a mid-season league encounter between two sides competing in Sweden's top division, where both teams will be fighting for points in their respective campaigns.

The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish a meaningful price. Historically, Allsvenskan matches between lower-mid-table sides show volatile pricing in early-season markets; comparable fixtures from 2024–2025 seasons saw probabilities shift 15–40 percentage points within 72 hours of kick-off as team news and injury reports emerged. Traders using conditional order logic should note that Allsvenskan markets typically tighten sharply 48 hours before fixture time, when official lineups are confirmed and betting syndicates adjust positions. A 0% reading suggests either the market has not yet attracted sufficient order flow or settlement criteria remain ambiguous to participants.

Key catalysts include official team news from both clubs, typically released Friday or Saturday morning. Injury confirmations, managerial changes, or fixture postponements would trigger immediate repricing. Traders implementing bot-based monitoring should flag Mjallby and Sirius's official social channels and Allsvenskan's fixture calendar for updates. The settlement window's 13:00 UTC closure is strict; any fixture delays or postponements announced after that time may create settlement disputes. Programmatic traders should verify settlement criteria with the market operator before deploying conditional orders.

Methodology

This page reviews Mjallby AIF vs. IK Sirius across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.