Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5) | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5) | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5) | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
PFK CSKA Sofia and Qarabağ Ağdam FK are playing the second leg of their UEFA Europa League qualifier in Sofia, with the match listed for Stadion Vasil Levski at 20:00 UTC, and the market settles on the outcome of the game’s extra “more markets” conditions rather than the match result itself.[2][3] For a power-user treating this as a programmable event, the practical question is not who wins but whether enough discrete match-state, disciplinary, or scoring events can occur before the settlement window closes at 18:00 UTC, which means any automation should track line-ups, live event feeds, and official match status closely.[2]
The current crowd-implied 0% YES is best read against a low-event first leg, which finished 0-0 in Baku on 23 July, and a broader pattern of tight head-to-heads: Qarabağ beat CSKA Sofia 1-0 in 2023 and again in 2021, while recent preview data shows both sides producing relatively modest scoring returns in Europe.[5][6][8] That history supports a cautious baseline for props tied to goals or high-cardinality event counts, because trader consensus often compresses towards the lower side when the first leg is goalless and the tie remains tactically conservative.[11][15]
The main catalysts are team-sheet releases, last-minute injury or rotation news, and any confirmed shift in match venue or kick-off timing, since those are the inputs a bot would use to reprice conditional orders and cancel stale copies before the first whistle.[2][3] UEFA’s fixture listing and live match centres are the cleanest reference points for confirmation, while the pre-match data already suggests Qarabağ arrive with the stronger recent scoring profile and CSKA’s path has relied more on narrow margins, so any early starting XI that increases attacking intent could matter disproportionately to these markets.[3][8][15]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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