Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Team to Advance | 100% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol (-1.5) | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| MH Maccabi Tel Aviv 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Sheriff Tiraspol 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Maccabi Tel Aviv are set to face FC Sheriff Tiraspol in the second leg of their UEFA Europa League qualifying tie, with Maccabi carrying a 5-0 aggregate lead from the first match in Tiraspol.[3][11][13] For a market tagged “More Markets”, that baseline matters because the tie state heavily skews the space of plausible prop outcomes: the most likely programme-level result is a routine home control rather than a volatile, high-scoring chase.[3][8]
The cleanest historical frame is the first leg itself. Maccabi won 5-0 away, scoring through open play and a penalty, while Sheriff’s discipline and defensive shape broke down under pressure.[1][11] Their broader recent European results also point to a side that can concede in clusters, including heavy defeats to stronger continental opposition, which supports treating any low-probability “YES” on niche markets as a thin tail rather than a live price.[2] Programmatically, a bot would usually anchor on the aggregate cushion, then update only if line-up, rotation, or early goal timing changes the match script.
The main catalysts are pre-match team news, whether Maccabi rotate enough to protect legs, and whether Sheriff alter their approach with nothing to lose; those inputs can materially change secondary markets such as cards, corners, and goal ranges. The match listing also moved across venues in the published feeds, with Yahoo and Fox Sports showing Maccabi at home on 30 July, while the first leg was at Sheriff Stadium on 23 July, so automation should reconcile the fixture context before submitting conditional orders or copy-trading signals.[3][8][12]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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