Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
51% | 49% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
51% | 49% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 2.5 | 34% |
| O/U 0.5 | 32% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 0.5 | 24% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 0.5 | 14% |
| O/U 1.5 | 4% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-1.5) | 3% |
| Both Teams to Score | 3% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK O/U 1.5 | 2% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-1.5) | 1% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK (-2.5) | 1% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia (-2.5) | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| O/U 3.5 | 1% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Qarabağ Ağdam FK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| PFK CSKA Sofia 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Qarabağ Ağdam FK host PFK CSKA Sofia in the Europa League qualifying tie, with the “More Markets” contract settling on whether extra market types are listed or triggered around the game window. For a programmatic trader, this kind of contract is usually less about match quality than about whether the event page, derivative markets, or exchange-side feed expands before settlement, so the practical inputs are the match listing, the market catalogue, and any late API updates.
Historically, Qarabağ have tended to be the stronger side in comparable European qualifying fixtures, and the head-to-head framing from FootyStats shows Qarabağ as materially stronger on scoring output than CSKA Sofia. That sort of gap matters because richer pre-match liquidity and wider trader interest often lead to more ancillary markets being posted around the main fixture, which can keep a low-probability “YES” live if the platform routinely adds props for line-ups, goals, cards, or first-half outcomes rather than leaving the slate thin. [1]
The key catalysts are administrative rather than tactical: line-up announcements, competition-feed updates, and whether the operator publishes extra props before kick-off or during the match window. A bot or copy-trading workflow would typically monitor the event slug, compare the count of open markets against a baseline, and fire conditional orders only after confirming the feed has actually expanded; if the catalogue stays unchanged close to 12:00 PM ET, the market normally remains a near-latency play rather than a football read. [1]
Sources: 1
Methodology
This page reviews Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. PFK CSKA Sofia - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Qarabağ Ağdam FK vs. PFK CSKA Sofia - More Markets on Polymarket Bot UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →