Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Tromsø IL (-1.5) | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-1.5) | 0% |
| Tromsø IL (-2.5) | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Tromsø IL 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Hradec Králové 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Tromsø IL are hosting FC Hradec Králové in a UEFA Europa League tie at Romssa Arena, and the “More Markets” contract is effectively a demand test for whether Polymarket-style secondary prompts appear around the fixture rather than a single yes/no scoreline.[1][2] The current 0% crowd-implied price fits a market that is already after the event window or has failed to surface any extra derivative markets before settlement, so a programmatic trader would treat it as a low-liquidity, event-driven check on whether additional sub-markets were ever created, listed, and eligible to resolve within the window.
For comparable cases, the useful read is that “more markets” outcomes usually depend on exchange housekeeping, fixture metadata, and whether the platform publishes extra derivatives such as corners, cards, or team-specific lines before kick-off; if none are created, the probability should collapse towards zero regardless of match sentiment. In practice, bots and conditional orders would monitor the event feed, market creation timestamps, and any late rulebook changes, because a market can only settle YES if the platform explicitly offers and opens qualifying additional markets in time.
The main catalysts are administrative rather than footballing: official competition feeds, match page updates, and any late notice that the Europa League fixture has extra offerings attached. A power-user would watch for schedule changes, line releases, and dependency failures in the market data pipeline, since those are the events that determine whether “more markets” becomes a live, resolvable contract or stays inert at 0%.[1][2]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
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