UFC Fight Night: Duško Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin (Middleweight, Main Card)

Platform comparison

Market context

Duško Todorovic and Robert Valentin are scheduled to fight at middleweight on the UFC Fight Night main card, and the market settles on the official UFC result, including a 50-50 outcome if the bout is a draw, no contest, or otherwise not scored. With crowd-implied probability at 0% YES, a programmatic approach would treat this as a dormant-price setup: any actionable model should wait for verified bout status, then map the UFC announcement directly to the market’s resolution rules rather than relying on fan sentiment or pre-fight chatter.

Comparable stat profiles explain why the market is hard to price from name recognition alone. Todorovic enters with stronger output numbers, landing 4.73 significant strikes per minute with 57% accuracy, plus more takedowns and a higher finish rate via knockout, while Valentin’s profile is more submission-heavy, with 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes and a better takedown defence figure of 55%.[5][1] That split matters for bots and copy-trading tools: Todorovic’s path is more volume and damage-led, Valentin’s is more grappling-dependent, so pre-fight odds can swing sharply if late camp reports suggest a style mismatch.

The main catalysts to monitor are the UFC’s official bout page, weigh-in and card-status updates, and any late changes to the fight order or medical clearance, because the settlement window closes shortly after the event time and postponement handling is explicit in the rules. News coverage has already framed this as a scheduled UFC Fight Night matchup, so the key programmatic trigger is not hype but confirmation that the bout actually starts and ends under UFC scoring.[2][15] A robust workflow would poll official UFC sources near fight time, flag any cancellation or rebooking beyond the cutoff, and only then release conditional orders tied to the fighter resolution path.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.