Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 28.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 29.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 80% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 63% |
| Match Winner | 55% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs NRG (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 31.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 32.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Team Vitality (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Team Vitality (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Team Vitality (+5.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 39% |
| Map 2 Winner | 33% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs NRG (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs Team Vitality (+2.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-5.5) vs Team Vitality (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-4.5) vs Team Vitality (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-3.5) vs Team Vitality (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-7.5) vs Team Vitality (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-6.5) vs Team Vitality (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: NRG (-8.5) vs Team Vitality (+8.5) | 1% |
| Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Team Vitality (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, valorant: team vitality vs nrg (bo3) - esports world cup group b stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the Valorant Winners match between Team Vitality and NRG in the Esports World Cup Group B, initially scheduled for July 4 at 9:45AM ET. This market will reso…
Methodology
We track Valorant: Team Vitality vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Group B across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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