Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the WNBA match between the Phoenix Mercury and the Indiana Fever, played on 24 June 2026 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, which concluded with the Mercury winning 111–109. This result validates the market’s current 100% YES probability for a Phoenix Mercury victory, as the game has already been settled with a decisive win for the home team’s opponent.

Historically, markets with 100% implied probability in sports prediction typically resolve only when the outcome is confirmed post-game, as seen in similar WNBA contests where late-game surges overturned pre-match odds. In this case, the Mercury’s narrow but clear victory aligns with prior patterns where close finishes still yield definitive market resolutions, reinforcing the reliability of the current probability reading.

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor official WNBA announcements for any postponement or cancellation clauses, though none apply here given the game’s completion. Key dependencies include final score verification and overtime rules, both confirmed by ESPN’s official game summary[1]. Recent coverage from Fox Sports also notes the spread dynamics and betting odds that preceded the result, offering context for conditional order strategies[2]. No further catalysts remain active as the settlement window has effectively closed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.