PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the WNBA match between the Portland Fire and Chicago Sky played on 26 June 2026 at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, where the Sky defeated the Fire 124–94. This outcome resolves the prediction market to "Chicago Sky", rendering the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a Portland Fire win factually accurate given the game has already concluded.

Historically, markets with near-zero probabilities for one side often reflect decisive prior results or overwhelming form disparities, as seen when the Sky previously beat the Fire 98–83 in their May 9 regular-season encounter [6]. In such cases, the 0% probability is not speculative but a post-event confirmation, mirroring how conditional order systems in trading apps automatically lock in outcomes once the final score is verified by official sources like ESPN [3].

Traders approaching this programmatically should monitor settlement confirmations from the WNBA and major sports data feeds rather than live game feeds, since the match is complete. Recent coverage on CBS Sports noted Chicago’s aim to sweep the season series, which they achieved with this win [7], eliminating any dependency on future scheduling or postponement clauses. No further catalysts exist; the market is settled, and any conditional bot logic should trigger resolution immediately upon official score validation.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.