Roland Garros WTA: Katie Boulter vs Anastasia Potapova

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Katie Boulter faces Anastasia Potapova in the opening rounds of Roland Garros 2026, with the match scheduled for 27 May at 5:00 AM ET. The settlement window closes 3 June at 09:00 UTC, allowing a six-day buffer for completion. The 0% implied probability reflects either missing fixture data or an expectation that the match will not proceed as scheduled—a critical distinction for conditional order logic, since cancellation or delay beyond seven days triggers a 50-50 resolution rather than a winner determination.

Historical precedent matters here. Boulter has competed in three Roland Garros tournaments (2022–2024), reaching the second round once and exiting in the first round twice. Potapova, meanwhile, has appeared four times (2021–2024), with a best result of the second round in 2023. Neither player has demonstrated consistent clay-court form at this venue, and both have injury histories that affect spring scheduling. The 0% reading likely signals either fixture uncertainty or a data lag rather than genuine market consensus.

Traders should monitor official Roland Garros draw releases and player injury bulletins through May. Boulter's recent performance on clay (WTA 250 events in April–May) and Potapova's fitness status post-spring tournaments will determine baseline form. Fixture confirmation typically arrives 48–72 hours before play. For automated strategies, the six-day settlement window is tight; any weather delays or player withdrawals after 27 May could push resolution toward the 50-50 outcome, making early-match monitoring essential for position management.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.