Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Livesport Prague Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro. This market refers to the tennis match between Marie Bouzkova and Jessica Bouzas Maneiro in the Livesport Prague Open, originally scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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