Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs Chloe Paquet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of hamburg european open, qualification: arantxa rus vs chloe paquet. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Arantxa Rus and Chloe Paquet in the Hamburg European Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 20, 2026 at 5:30AM ET. This …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Arantxa Rus vs… on Polymarket Bot UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →