Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Match O/U 21.5 | 86% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Match O/U 22.5 | 86% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Match O/U 23.5 | 86% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti | 8% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 1% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to targu mures: sara sorribes tormo vs lucia bronzetti. This market refers to the tennis match between Sara Sorribes Tormo and Lucia Bronzetti in the Targu Mures, originally scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sara Sorr…
Methodology
This page reviews Targu Mures: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Lucia Bronzetti across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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