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July Inflation US - Annual

Five-platform snapshot of "July Inflation US - Annual" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

3.4% 43% 3.3% 26% 3.5% 22% 3.2% 3% Volume: $289K Liquidity: $186K Closes: 12 Aug 2026
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July Inflation US - Annual

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 43% 57% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 43% 57% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
3.4%43%
3.3%26%
3.5%22%
3.2%3%
≤3.1%2%
3.6%2%
3.7%1%
3.8%1%
3.9%1%
4.0%1%
≥4.2%1%
4.1%0%

Market context

Live Polymarket data shows 43% YES probability for July Inflation US - Annual. This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending July 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage chang…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

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