Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC O/U 1.5 | 63% |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Gwangju FC (-2.5) | 50% |
| Gwangju FC O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gwangju FC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Gwangju FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Gwangju FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-2.5) | 49% |
| Gwangju FC (-1.5) | 43% |
| O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC (-1.5) | 24% |
| Gwangju FC O/U 0.5 | 19% |
| Both Teams to Score | 16% |
| O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| O/U 3.5 | 5% |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC O/U 2.5 | 3% |
| O/U 4.5 | 2% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Gwangju FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Gwangju FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Daejeon Hana Citizen and Gwangju FC meet in K League 1 with the market on whether *more markets* will be listed for the fixture currently pricing at 24% YES. The frame for a power user is simple: this is a secondary-market listing question, so the trigger is not the result itself but whether the exchange adds further prop depth before the settlement window closes at 2026-08-02T10:30:00Z.
Historical read-through argues against treating 24% as a pure match-result proxy. The clubs’ head-to-head has been balanced over time, with one source showing 13 Daejeon wins, 12 Gwangju wins and 13 draws, while another records 30 meetings split almost evenly at 10 Gwangju wins, 9 Daejeon wins and 11 draws[2][16]. The most recent comparable league meeting in late March 2025 finished 1-1, but Daejeon also beat Gwangju 5-0 in May 2026, so recent scorelines have varied sharply[18][6]. For traders running bots or conditional orders, that means a low baseline should be read as a platform-liquidity and scheduling signal rather than a stable opinion on the teams’ relative strength.
The practical catalysts are operational: line-up confirmation, late injury or suspension notes, and any delay in market creation around other concurrent K-League content. Recent reporting around the sides’ 2026 league meetings showed Daejeon in good attacking form at one point and Gwangju on a long losing run, which can increase attention and prompt extra derivative markets if the exchange expects live engagement[6]. Programmatically, the key watch items are whether the event page populates additional props as kick-off approaches, whether new markets appear after team news, and whether the market set is updated before the settlement cut-off, since those are the moments when copy-trading and rule-based order logic tend to fire[1][9].
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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