Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Ulsan HD FC (-1.5) | 53% |
| FC Anyang O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| FC Anyang O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| FC Anyang 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ulsan HD FC (-2.5) | 45% |
| O/U 4.5 | 38% |
| FC Anyang (-2.5) | 6% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| FC Anyang (-1.5) | 5% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Ulsan HD FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Ulsan HD FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Anyang 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
Market context
Ulsan HD’s meeting with FC Anyang is the real-world fixture behind this “more markets” cluster, and the current 53% YES price implies only a slight lean that additional linked outcomes will resolve in the affirmative before settlement. For a programme that consumes market data, that is the sort of near-coinflip level where automated entry rules usually need to be stricter on liquidity, spread, and time-to-kick-off than on raw direction, because the edge is likely to come from how the game state evolves rather than from a large pre-match mispricing.
The historical frame is mixed rather than cleanly directional. The sides have traded results across a small sample, including a 1-1 draw in April 2026 and a 3-1 Anyang win in November 2025, while earlier meetings also include narrow Ulsan wins and a 0-0 draw[7][11][12][13]. Recent form checks point both ways: one set of form lines shows FC Anyang with strong away results and both teams scoring in most recent matches, while another notes Ulsan’s last head-to-heads have been competitive and low-margin[2][4][15]. For a bot or copy-trading stack, that combination typically argues for watching live signals rather than relying on a static pre-match model.
The practical catalysts are standard but important: confirmed line-ups, late injury or rotation news, and any schedule-linked pressure from recent league or cup fixtures, because those factors can move subsidiary markets faster than the main result line. The match is scheduled for 2 August at 6:30 am ET, so programme logic should be set to reassess shortly before line-up release and again after the first in-play event, when correlated markets often reprice together[1][5]. A recent report also noted Ulsan drawing 1-1 with Anyang earlier in the campaign while narrowing the gap at the top of the table, which matters because tactical conservatism or a draw-biased setup can suppress volatility in derivative markets[7].
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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