LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2

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Active sub-markets

Market context

HANJIN BRION face DN SOOPers in a best-of-three League of Legends match within the LCK's opening rounds, scheduled for 15 May at 06:00 ET. The fixture is a standard regular-season encounter in South Korea's premier esports league, with settlement contingent on match completion by 22 May. The 100% crowd-implied probability reflects either exceptionally high confidence in one outcome or sparse liquidity; in esports prediction markets, such extreme readings often persist when match-ups involve significant skill disparities or when one organisation has established dominance in recent fixtures.

Historical precedent from LCK regular seasons shows that opening-round matches rarely fail to complete. Cancellations or forfeits occur in fewer than 2% of scheduled fixtures, typically only when organisational crises or severe player illness emerge. The 50-50 resolution clause for delays beyond seven days is a safeguard rarely triggered; LCK scheduling has proven reliable since 2020. Traders evaluating this market programmatically should treat the completion risk as negligible unless roster announcements or organisational statements surface.

Key catalysts include official LCK roster confirmations and any last-minute scheduling adjustments published on the league's English-language channels. Conditional order logic should monitor for match postponements or team withdrawals announced within 48 hours of fixture time. Recent LCK seasons have seen matches proceed as scheduled even with mid-season roster swaps, so administrative stability remains high. Traders should flag any unusual gap between crowd probability and comparable team-strength metrics as a signal to reassess underlying assumptions.

Methodology

We track LoL: HANJIN BRION vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.