LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

Karmine Corp and GIANTX will contest a League of Legends best-of-three match in the LEC Regular Season on 10 May at 9:00 AM ET. The 0% implied probability reflects either extreme confidence in one outcome or insufficient liquidity for meaningful price discovery. For programmatic traders, this presents a calibration problem: markets with near-zero probabilities often indicate sparse order books rather than genuine certainty, making conditional orders and automated execution strategies vulnerable to slippage or failed fills.

Historical LEC matches between mid-table teams show that implied probabilities below 5% typically emerge when one roster has demonstrable roster advantages—recent roster changes, proven synergy, or head-to-head records. Comparable cases from prior LEC seasons suggest that such extreme probabilities resolve accurately only when paired with recent, verifiable information (roster confirmations, injury reports, or coaching changes). Without current roster or form data, a 0% probability warrants scepticism; traders should cross-reference recent LEC standings, player transfer announcements, and team performance metrics from the preceding fortnight.

Catalysts to monitor include official LEC schedule confirmations, any last-minute roster substitutions, and team announcements regarding player availability. The settlement window closes at 19:00 UTC on 10 May, allowing a ten-hour window post-match for result confirmation. Traders using automated monitoring should flag any schedule delays exceeding 24 hours, as the 50-50 resolution clause applies if the match extends beyond 7 days without completion. Check LEC's official channels and esports databases for fixture updates closer to the date.

Methodology

We track LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Regular Season across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. PolyGram is highlighted because it routes directly into the same Polymarket order book without taking a margin.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.twitch.tv/lec. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.