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LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

How the prediction-market book is pricing "LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

Match Winner 77% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 69% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 69% Game 1 Winner 68% Volume: $227K Liquidity: $538K Closes: 30 Jun 2026
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LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 77% 23% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 77% 23% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner77%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon69%
Game 1 Winner68%
Game 2 Winner68%
O/U 3.5 Games68%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon68%
Game 3 Winner67%
Game 4 Winner62%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5)60%
First Blood in Game 4?53%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor52%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 3?52%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?52%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors51%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?51%
First Blood in Game 3?51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Any Player Penta Kill50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
First Blood in Game 1?50%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 4?50%
First Blood in Game 2?50%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon44%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon44%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 2?41%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 3?40%
Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?39%
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)31%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 4?31%
O/U 4.5 Games30%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor28%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor27%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors27%
Any Player Penta Kill11%
Any Player Penta Kill11%
Any Player Penta Kill11%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 77% probability to lol: karmine corp vs team liquid (bo5) - mid-season invitational play-in. This market refers to the LoL Lower bracket final match between Karmine Corp and Team Liquid in the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, initially scheduled for June 30 at 4:00AM ET. This market will res…

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

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