Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| Game Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Shopify Rebellion (+1.5) | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Shopify Rebellion and Sentinels face off in a League of Legends best-of-three match within the LCS regular season, scheduled for 9 May at 4:00 PM ET. The 100% implied probability reflects either exceptionally strong conviction around one team's superiority, or sparse liquidity in the market creating wide spreads. For programmatic traders, this presents a calibration problem: such extreme probabilities typically indicate either genuine skill gaps in professional play or mispricing due to low order-book depth. Historical LCS matchups between established rosters rarely settle at such extremes unless one team has undergone significant roster changes or faces documented internal issues.
Traders should monitor roster announcements and injury reports through official LCS channels and team social media up to match time. Sentinels' recent performance trajectory and Shopify Rebellion's mid-season form matter considerably; any last-minute substitutions or coaching changes announced within 48 hours of the scheduled start would warrant reassessment. The settlement window extends to 10 May at 02:00 UTC, providing a one-day buffer for rescheduling—critical for conditional order logic, as delays beyond seven days trigger a 50-50 resolution regardless of eventual outcome.
For algorithmic approaches, the key dependency is match completion. Incomplete matches where one team secures a series win before all games conclude still resolve to that winner; only cancellations, ties, or unresolved delays beyond the seven-day threshold force the 50-50 outcome. Traders building automated systems should flag any LCS schedule disruptions or force-majeure announcements that might affect fixture integrity.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
Trade LoL: Shopify Rebellion vs Sentinels (BO3) - LCS Regu… on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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