Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Monterrey O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| CF Monterrey 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 58% |
| CF Monterrey 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Atlas FC O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Atlas FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Atlas FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| CF Monterrey 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Atlas FC O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| Atlas FC (-2.5) | 34% |
| O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| CF Monterrey O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| CF Monterrey O/U 1.5 | 18% |
| Both Teams to Score | 15% |
| CF Monterrey (-1.5) | 14% |
| O/U 2.5 | 14% |
| O/U 5.5 | 9% |
| O/U 3.5 | 6% |
| Atlas FC (-1.5) | 5% |
| CF Monterrey (-2.5) | 2% |
| O/U 4.5 | 2% |
| Atlas FC O/U 2.5 | 1% |
| Atlas FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 1% |
| Atlas FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| CF Monterrey 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
Market context
Atlas face CF Monterrey in a Liga MX fixture that has historically tilted towards Monterrey, which matters when you are scripting around the “more markets” layer rather than the main winner line. Across published head-to-head sets, Monterrey have the stronger record: 24 wins to Atlas’s 11 across 47 meetings, with Atlas often needing a low-event or draw-friendly script to keep secondary markets alive.[1][18] The most recent league meeting finished 0-0 in April 2026, a reminder that even a one-sided historical split can still produce a quiet match state when the teams match up conservatively.[19]
A 5% crowd-implied yes price usually reads as a very specific, low-frequency outcome rather than a generic “longshot”. For power users approaching this programmatically, the key is to map the exact settlement language against the match feed and any auxiliary markets you are copying or chaining, because “more markets” can depend on whether a qualifying prop is listed, whether it settles from official statistics, and whether the book or exchange publishes it before kick-off. Recent head-to-head data also points to mixed scoring patterns: Monterrey’s recent sample is stronger in both results and scoring efficiency, while Atlas’s last five against top-level opposition have not produced consistently high-output games.[1][9]
The practical catalysts to watch are lineup publication, late injury or suspension notes, and whether any added markets are appended before the scheduled 9:00 PM ET start. If you are running conditional orders or bot rules, the cleanest trigger is usually the market creation timestamp and the first official team-sheet update, since those are the points at which a previously absent prop can appear and reprice quickly. Match-state dependencies also matter: if the main fixture drifts towards a cagey first half, derivative markets tied to cards, corners, or both teams to score can behave very differently from the pre-match headline price, so any automated strategy should poll the feed up to settlement-window close and avoid assuming the initial 5% implies static liquidity.[3][4]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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