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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

How the prediction-market book is pricing "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 80% 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 68% O/U 8.5 57% 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 56% Volume: $120K Liquidity: $905K Closes: 3 Aug 2026
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Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 80% 20% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Place a position →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 80% 20% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Place a position →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Place a position →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Place a position →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Place a position →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
1st 5 Innings O/U 2.580%
1st 5 Innings O/U 3.568%
O/U 8.557%
1st 5 Innings O/U 4.556%
NRFI52%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates48%
O/U 9.548%
1st 5 Innings O/U 5.546%
O/U 10.540%
Spread -1.537%
Spread -1.536%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.533%
1st 5 Innings O/U 6.533%
1st 5 Innings Spread -1.531%
Spread -2.528%
Spread -2.527%
Extra Innings10%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, arizona diamondbacks vs. pittsburgh pirates stands at 80% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming MLB game between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Pittsburgh Pirates, scheduled for July 27 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Arizona Diamondbacks" if the Ari…

Live Data & Statistics

The Polymarket order book prices 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 at 80% for "Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates".

1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 80% Other 20%

Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $120K.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
David ParkDavid ParkSports Data AnalystandOliver HughesOliver HughesBlockchain & Crypto Reporter

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