Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming MLB fixture between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox, scheduled for 22 June at 7:40PM ET, has already concluded with a 4–5 victory for the White Sox, rendering the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a Guardians win a factual certainty rather than a speculative forecast. Programmatic traders evaluating conditional orders or copy-trading bots would note that the settlement window ending 29 June 2026 is merely a formal delay, as the event outcome is already recorded in official final statistics [3][7].

Historical head-to-head data frames this result within a pattern of Guardians dominance that was abruptly overturned in this specific instance; the Guardians had won eight of their last ten meetings against the White Sox and were 4–1 in their last five encounters prior to this game [1][2]. Comparable cases in prediction markets show that when a historically superior team loses a single match, algorithms often misprice the next fixture unless they incorporate the immediate result, whereas a utility-focused bot would instantly lock the 0% probability once the final score was confirmed [5].

Traders monitoring catalysts for similar markets should prioritise real-time score feeds and official MLB scoreboard updates over pre-game schedules, as the game outcome superseded all prior dependencies [3]. Recent coverage confirms the White Sox secured the win with a 50.7% in-game probability at the 7th inning, 2 outs, indicating the turning point was a late scoring surge that bots tracking live odds would have captured immediately [6]. No further announcements are required, as the resolution source is the definitive final statistic already published [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.