Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Chicago White Sox are due to face the Detroit Tigers in Detroit, and the market is effectively asking whether the White Sox can win outright in a single-game result. At a 5% YES price, the contract is already implying a very low chance of a White Sox victory, so the main task for a programmatic trader is to compare that tail probability against live team, line-up, and price inputs rather than treat the market as a coin-flip proxy.[1][4][5]

For context, the available pre-game pricing points in the same direction: one sportsbook snapshot had Detroit around -120 on the moneyline and Chicago around +100, while ESPN’s game page showed Detroit with a slight edge in its win probability split.[1][4] That matters because prediction-market contracts on straight winners usually track the moneyline more closely than run-line or total markets, so a 5% YES can be read as an aggressive discount relative to conventional pre-game pricing unless there is late, game-specific information not yet reflected in the feed.[1][2][5]

The practical catalysts to watch are the confirmed starter, any late scratch in the batting order, and whether the game goes ahead on schedule, since postponement leaves the market open until completion and a cancelled or tied game settles 50-50.[1] For automation, the cleanest workflow is to poll the official game status, compare the latest market price with MLB line movements, and suspend any copy-trading or conditional order logic if weather or schedule changes create a delayed start; the market should not be treated as final until the official result is posted.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.