Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Miami Marlins travel to New York for a regular-season matchup against the Mets on 30 May at 4:10 PM ET. This single-game market settles based on the official final result recorded by Major League Baseball, with provisions for postponement (market remains open) or cancellation/tie (50-50 split). The settlement window extends to 6 June 2026, allowing sufficient time for any weather-related delays or make-up games within the standard MLB rescheduling window.

The 0% implied probability reflects either a technical issue with market initialisation or a data feed lag, as both teams carry genuine win probabilities in any regular-season fixture. Historical comparison suggests markets on individual MLB games typically stabilise between 45–55% for evenly matched opponents once trading volume increases. The Marlins and Mets have shown variable performance across recent seasons; contextualising this specific matchup requires checking current-season records, recent form, and head-to-head records as of late May 2026.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track pitcher announcements—typically confirmed 24 hours before game time—as starting rotation changes materially shift win probability. Weather forecasts for the New York area warrant attention, particularly in late May when thunderstorms can trigger postponements. Integration with MLB's official schedule API and real-time injury reports will provide the most reliable data for conditional orders or automated position adjustments. The market's resolution dependency on official MLB statistics means settlement should occur within hours of game completion, barring unusual circumstances requiring league review.

Methodology

We track Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.