Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Miami Marlins travel to New York on 31 May for a regular-season matchup against the Mets, with first pitch at 1:40 PM ET. The current crowd-implied probability of 42% for a Marlins victory reflects moderate confidence in the home team, though the spread suggests meaningful uncertainty about the outcome. Settlement occurs on 7 June, allowing time for any postponements to be resolved before market closure.

Historical matchups between these division rivals show the Mets have held a structural advantage in recent seasons, though single-game outcomes remain volatile. Over the past three seasons, the Mets' win rate against Miami hovers around 55–58%, which would imply roughly 55–58% crowd probability for a Mets win. The current 42% for Miami suggests either market participants are pricing in specific game-day factors or expect regression toward historical norms. Traders evaluating this market programmatically should cross-reference seasonal head-to-head records and recent form streaks to identify whether the probability reflects genuine edge or crowd overconfidence in either direction.

Pitching assignments and injury status represent the primary catalysts affecting fair value. Starting pitcher announcements typically arrive 24–48 hours before game time; a significant mismatch in ERA or recent performance between the scheduled starters could shift implied probability by 3–5 percentage points. Weather conditions at Citi Field—particularly wind direction affecting fly-ball outcomes—merit monitoring through National Weather Service data. Traders using conditional order logic should set triggers around official lineup releases and weather updates, as these inputs directly influence run-scoring expectations and thus win probability models.

Methodology

This page reviews Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Bot UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.