Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Miami Marlins travel to Pittsburgh on 13 June for a regular-season matchup against the Pirates, with first pitch at 4:05 PM ET. The settlement window extends to 20 June at 20:05 UTC, allowing for potential postponements. The current 1% implied probability for a Marlins victory reflects substantial market confidence in a Pirates win, though this skews heavily on pre-game positioning rather than established form differentials at this juncture in the season.

Historical matchup data between these franchises shows competitive balance over recent seasons, with neither team establishing decisive home-field dominance. The Pirates' home record and Marlins' away performance through early June will anchor baseline expectations, but single-game resolution markets of this type typically see probability shifts tied to roster availability rather than aggregate seasonal metrics. Traders automating conditional orders should flag any late-breaking injury announcements affecting starting pitchers, as bullpen depth disparities often drive material repricing in low-probability outcomes.

Programmatic monitoring should track official MLB roster updates and weather alerts for Pittsburgh through settlement close. The Pirates' recent form and run differential against comparable opponents provides calibration for whether the 1% reflects genuine expectation or market inefficiency. Postponement contingencies matter here: if the game shifts to a later date, liquidity may fragment across multiple resolution windows, affecting execution costs for positions entered at current odds.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.