New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The Yankees travel to Cleveland on 9 June for a regular-season matchup against the Guardians, with first pitch at 6:40 PM ET. The market settles on the winner of this single game, with a resolution window extending to 16 June to accommodate any postponements. Current implied probability sits at 53% for a Yankees victory, reflecting modest favouritism despite New York's higher payroll and historical win rate against Cleveland.

Historical head-to-head records between these franchises show the Yankees have won roughly 55–60% of matchups over the past decade, though Cleveland's 2023 AL Central title run and subsequent competitive roster adjustments have narrowed that gap considerably. Comparing this market's 53% reading to pre-game moneyline odds from major sportsbooks provides a calibration point; if conventional betting markets price Yankees at −110 or tighter, the crowd probability aligns with professional consensus. Seasonal context matters: June performance often reflects early-season roster stability and injury status rather than predictive power, so traders should weight recent form over full-season records.

Pitching assignments and bullpen availability represent the primary catalysts for repricing. Confirmation of starting pitchers typically arrives 24–48 hours before game time; any late injury announcement—particularly to either team's ace or closer—can shift probabilities by 3–5 percentage points. Weather conditions at Progressive Field (temperature, wind direction affecting fly ball distance) and travel fatigue following the previous game should feed into conditional order logic. For programmatic approaches, monitoring MLB roster moves and injury reports through official league channels or ESPN feeds allows automated threshold triggers if key players are ruled out.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.