New York Yankees vs. Athletics

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The New York Yankees travel to Oakland on 30 May for a night fixture against the Athletics, with first pitch at 10:05 PM ET. The market currently implies a 59% probability of a Yankees victory, reflecting their status as the favoured team in this American League matchup. Settlement occurs on 7 June, allowing for potential postponements within that window.

Historical matchup data shows the Yankees have won approximately 60% of regular-season contests against Oakland over the past five seasons, though the Athletics have improved their competitive standing in recent years. The current implied probability aligns closely with preseason strength ratings and recent head-to-head performance, suggesting the market has already priced in baseline roster quality and home-field disadvantage for the Yankees. Traders monitoring this market should note that late-May fixtures often reflect mid-season form adjustments rather than opening-day projections.

Key variables affecting settlement include starting pitcher assignments, which typically shift 24–48 hours before game time and materially influence win probability models. Injury reports released on game day—particularly regarding key position players or relief arms—can trigger sharp movement in the final hours. Weather conditions at Oakland Coliseum, including wind direction affecting fly ball distances, warrant monitoring through the National Weather Service. Automated trading systems should incorporate MLB's official injury database and ESPN's lineup confirmations as conditional triggers, given that late roster changes frequently occur between market open and first pitch.

Methodology

We track New York Yankees vs. Athletics on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.