San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The San Francisco Giants are playing the Miami Marlins in a regular-season MLB game, and the market resolves on the official final result unless the game is postponed, cancelled, or tied under the listed rules. A **6% YES** price implies the Giants are a clear underdog in crowd terms, so a programmatic read would treat this as a low-hit-rate branch unless new line-up or weather data materially changes the pre-game state.[1][3][4]

Comparable pricing points in the market data point the same way: bookmakers had San Francisco around **-144** on the moneyline, with Miami around **+122**, while the total was set at **8** runs, and ESPN’s team splits show both clubs carrying mid-tier offensive profiles rather than a dominant edge for either side.[1][3][6] For a bot or conditional-order workflow, that usually means the most useful signals are not headline team names but the confirmed starter, late line movement, and whether the price on San Francisco tightens into first pitch; if the market is already at 6%, traders are paying for a fairly specific upset path rather than a broad favourite case.[1][2]

The main catalysts to watch are the posted line-up card, any late pitching change, and official game-status updates if weather or schedule issues intervene, because postponement keeps the market open and a cancellation or tie forces a 50-50 resolution under the contract terms. In practice, a power-user setup would monitor the sportsbook consensus and the live game feed together, because a move away from Giants -144 or a late downgrade to the starter is the sort of dependency that can justify a rapid reassessment of a low-probability YES position.[1][4][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.