Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
70% | 30% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
70% | 30% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 2.5 | 70% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5 | 56% |
| NRFI | 46% |
| O/U 7.5 | 46% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5 | 44% |
| Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners | 37% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 37% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 | 31% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5 | 21% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -1.5 | 19% |
| Extra Innings | 12% |
| 1st 5 Innings Spread -2.5 | 10% |
Market context
San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners — current market-implied probability: 70%. In the upcoming MLB game between the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners, scheduled for July 17 at 10:10PM ET: This market will resolve to "San Francisco Giants" if the San Francisco Giants win…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $174K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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Trade San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners on Polymarket Bot UK
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