Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| Fenerbahçe SK O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| O/U 1.5 | 84% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 83% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 79% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 76% |
| Fenerbahçe SK O/U 1.5 | 72% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| O/U 2.5 | 64% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz O/U 0.5 | 55% |
| Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5) | 54% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 53% |
| Both Teams to Score | 52% |
| Fenerbahçe SK O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| O/U 3.5 | 42% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 37% |
| Fenerbahçe SK 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Fenerbahçe SK (-2.5) | 31% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 29% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 28% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 27% |
| O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 20% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz O/U 1.5 | 20% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 19% |
| O/U 5.5 | 11% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 8% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 7% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz O/U 2.5 | 5% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz (-1.5) | 3% |
| SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz (-2.5) | 1% |
Market context
Fenerbahçe SK vs. SK Puntigamer Sturm Graz - More Markets — current market-implied probability: 97%. More markets for the UEFA Champions League game, scheduled for August 5 at 2:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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