Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Shamrock Rovers FC (-1.5) | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC (-2.5) | 100% |
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| O/U 4.5 | 100% |
| O/U 5.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Floriana FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Floriana FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Shamrock Rovers FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Floriana FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Floriana FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Floriana FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Floriana FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Floriana FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 0% |
| Floriana FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Floriana FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Shamrock Rovers FC and Floriana FC have already completed their UEFA Champions League fixture, with Floriana securing a 2–0 victory on 7 July 2026[1]. The match finished under the 2.5-goal over/under line, confirming the under outcome for bettors[2]. Because the game is settled, the 100% YES probability on “More Markets” reflects a post-event certainty rather than a live forecast, a pattern common when markets aggregate resolved ancillary outcomes like total goals, corners, or first scorer after the main result is known.
Historically, prediction markets tied to “more markets” for completed fixtures converge to 100% once the underlying data is published by official sources, as seen in prior Champions League qualifiers where ancillary bets resolved within hours of the final whistle. Programmatic traders typically monitor official match reports from UEFA or trusted score aggregators like YS Scores to trigger conditional orders that lock in arbitrage-free positions once the result is confirmed[1]. In this case, the 2–0 scoreline and the under outcome are already recorded, eliminating uncertainty and justifying the full probability.
Key catalysts for traders evaluating similar markets include the timing of official result publication and the availability of granular data feeds for ancillary stats. A recent Fox Sports boxscore confirmed the 2-goal total and Floriana’s +300 odds win, providing the definitive data point needed for automated settlement logic[2]. For bot-driven strategies, the dependency is the API feed that updates match status to “finished” and populates the full stat sheet; once that trigger fires, conditional buy orders for YES on resolved ancillary markets execute without slippage, as the outcome is no longer probabilistic.
Methodology
This page reviews Shamrock Rovers FC vs. Floriana FC - More Markets across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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