Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs FUT Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-4.5) vs FUT Esports (+4.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 90% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 90% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-6.5) vs FUT Esports (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) | 90% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs FUT Esports (+3.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 73% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-5.5) vs FUT Esports (+5.5) | 53% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 51% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 51% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 28% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-4.5) vs FUT Esports (+4.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-5.5) vs FUT Esports (+5.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-6.5) vs FUT Esports (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 10% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 10% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-2.5) vs Natus Vincere (+2.5) | 8% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FUT Esports (-4.5) vs Natus Vincere (+4.5) | 0% |
Market context
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Valorant match between FUT Esports and Natus Vincere in the VCT EMEA Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 15 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "FUT Esports" if…
Methodology
This page reviews Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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