Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is a WNBA match-up on 27 June between the Phoenix Mercury and Toronto Tempo, scheduled for 2:00 PM ET at the Mortgage Matchup Centre, with both sides currently holding identical 2-2 records. The market currently prices a 52% chance of a Phoenix Mercury victory, implying a narrow edge for the home side despite their recent struggles.

Historically, when two evenly matched teams meet with identical win-loss records, the home advantage typically shifts probabilities by 4–6% in favour of the host, yet this market’s 52% figure suggests the home edge is being partially offset by recent performance trends. In the 19 May encounter, Toronto defeated Phoenix 98–90 despite playing with four injured players, a result that underscores Toronto’s resilience and offensive firepower, particularly from Brittney Sykes and Marina Mabrey, who each scored 30 points [2][5]. This prior outcome frames the current probability as conservative, given Toronto’s ability to win under adverse conditions.

Traders should monitor pre-game injury reports and starting lineup announcements, as Toronto’s depth has been tested repeatedly this season. A recent CBS Sports preview notes that Toronto’s top scorer recently set a single-game WNBA scoring record with 53 points, highlighting their offensive ceiling and potential volatility in close games [7]. Programmatically, this market would be approached via conditional orders triggered by lineup confirmations, with bots adjusting exposure based on real-time injury updates and starting five disclosures. The settlement window closes on 27 June 2026 at 18:00:00Z, requiring precise timing for any automated strategies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.