Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to targu mures: elena ruxandra bertea vs carole monnet. This market refers to the tennis match between Elena Ruxandra Bertea and Carole Monnet in the Targu Mures, originally scheduled for July 29, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elena Ruxa…
Methodology
We track Targu Mures: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Carole Monnet across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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