Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
75% | 25% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
75% | 25% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 75% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Match O/U 21.5 | 25% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Match O/U 22.5 | 25% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Match O/U 23.5 | 25% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 5% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Set 2 Winner | 3% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina | 1% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Hamburg European Open: Maria Lourdes Carle vs Anhelina Kalinina Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 75% probability to hamburg european open: maria lourdes carle vs anhelina kalinina. This market refers to the tennis match between Maria Lourdes Carle and Anhelina Kalinina in the Hamburg European Open, originally scheduled for July 22, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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