Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Bot UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Place a position → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Place a position → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Place a position → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Place a position → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Place a position → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Match O/U 21.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Match O/U 22.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Match O/U 23.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Set 1 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Set 2 Winner | 0% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Live Polymarket data shows 100% YES probability for Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson. This market refers to the tennis match between Kamilla Rakhimova and Heather Watson in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for July 25, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will…
Methodology
This page reviews Mubadala Citi DC Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Heather Watson across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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