Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a 54-kilometre waterway between Iran and Oman, remains one of the world's most strategically monitored maritime chokepoints. Roughly one-third of global seaborne oil passes through it annually. Warship transits by non-regional powers—particularly those from Western navies or allied states—occur episodically rather than routinely, driven by geopolitical tensions, freedom-of-navigation operations, or responses to Iranian provocations. The market's 4% probability reflects the relatively low baseline frequency of such transits outside periods of acute crisis.

Historical precedent suggests transits cluster around specific flashpoints. The 2019–2020 period saw multiple US Navy and allied warship passages following the Soleimani assassination and subsequent tensions. The 2022 British frigate transit occurred amid broader regional instability. Between these episodes, transits become rare enough that traders should condition forecasts on escalation triggers: direct Iranian threats to shipping, attacks on commercial vessels, or explicit announcements of freedom-of-navigation operations. Monitoring US Central Command statements, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps activity reports, and shipping incident databases provides real-time signal.

For programmatic evaluation, traders should track three dependencies: Iranian domestic political cycles (elections, leadership transitions), oil price volatility (which correlates with regional risk appetite), and US military posture announcements. Conditional orders tied to specific news sources—Reuters alerts on Iranian naval activity, official US Navy press releases—would capture sudden probability shifts more efficiently than manual monitoring. The settlement window extends to mid-2026, allowing sufficient time for geopolitical conditions to shift materially from current baseline assumptions.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Bot UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Bot UK?

Zero. Polymarket Bot UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Bot UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.