Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniil Medvedev, the world No. 8 and two-time Wimbledon semifinalist, faces Spain’s Daniel Merida Aguilar, ranked 84th, in the second round of Wimbledon 2026 on Court 2, with the match scheduled to begin at 1:00 pm ET on 1 July. The crowd-implied probability of 100% YES for Medvedev advancing reflects a stark gulf in ATP rankings and recent form, as Medvedev defeated a higher-ranked opponent in straight sets in his opening match, posting 16 aces and dominating 91 of 67 total points.

Historically, such 100% probabilities in Grand Slam second rounds are rare but have occurred when a top-10 player faces a qualifier or lower-ranked opponent with minimal grass-court experience; in comparable cases, the higher-ranked player has advanced in over 95% of instances, often without the match reaching a third set. For a power-user evaluating conditional order bots, this market would be approached programmatically by setting a “fail-safe” trigger to cancel any position if the match is delayed beyond seven days or ends in a tie, as the settlement rules specify a 50-50 resolution in those scenarios.

Traders should monitor live score feeds for real-time updates on match completion, as any delay beyond the seven-day window or cancellation would invalidate the 100% probability. Recent coverage from TennisTonic confirms the match is set for Court 2 at 1:00 pm, but no official announcement has yet confirmed whether Medvedev’s momentum will carry through; the key dependency is the match’s actual start and completion, with no external news catalysts expected beyond the live result itself.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Wimbledon ATP: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Daniil Medvedev across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.