Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin

Platform comparison

Market context

Nicolas Arseneault faces Andres Martin in the Granby Challenger men’s singles match on 13 July 2026 at 14:00 UTC, with the market currently pricing Arseneault’s advancement at 24% implied probability. The contest is part of the ATP Challenger Tour in Canada, where both players hold equal career win totals but differ significantly in ranking and recent form [1][3].

Historically, lower-ranked Challengers players with equal win counts but inferior ATP rankings—like Arseneault at No. 674 versus Martin’s higher standing—tend to underperform when priced below 30%, especially in early-round matches where experience gaps outweigh raw win parity. Comparable cases from 2024–2025 Granby events show that players ranked 150+ spots below their opponent win only 18–22% of such matches, aligning closely with the current 24% market reading [3][4].

Traders should monitor the official ATP Tour schedule for any delay notices or player withdrawals before 10:00 AM ET, as Granby matches have a 7-day resolution window for delayed outcomes. A recent update from TennisStats confirms the match is set for 3:00 PM local time with no reported injuries, but conditional order bots should flag any pre-match ranking changes or surface-specific performance shifts, particularly on the hard courts used in Granby [1][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Granby: Nicolas Arseneault vs Andres Martin across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.