Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Timofey Skatov

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon and Timofey Skatov are scheduled to meet in the Swiss Open tennis tournament on 13 July 2026. The match represents a first-round or early-stage encounter at a mid-tier ATP 250 event. Settlement occurs by 20 July 2026, allowing a seven-day window for completion or rescheduling before the market resolves to a tie-break outcome.

The 100% implied probability reflects either extremely high confidence in match completion or sparse liquidity on the counter-side. Historical precedent from ATP 250 events shows cancellation rates below 2% for scheduled matches once draw confirmation occurs, though weather delays at Swiss venues (particularly in July) occasionally push matches into the following day. Skatov's recent form and ranking trajectory relative to Collignon's seeding status would normally anchor probability distributions; however, the current market state suggests minimal trading activity or information asymmetry. Traders using conditional order logic should flag this as a potential mispricing opportunity if either player withdraws pre-match or if weather forecasts deteriorate significantly in the week prior.

Monitoring points include official ATP communications regarding draw confirmation (typically released 48–72 hours before tournament start), injury reports from both players' social media or ATP databases, and Swiss weather forecasts for the Gstaad region. Court scheduling announcements often arrive 24 hours before play. Programmatic traders tracking this market should integrate feeds from ATP official sources and cross-reference against betting exchange movement on competing platforms to detect early withdrawal signals or schedule changes that might trigger the 50-50 resolution clause.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Bot UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.