Swiss Open: Raphael Collignon vs Valentin Vacherot

Platform comparison

Market context

Raphael Collignon faces Valentin Vacherot in the Swiss Open Gstaad quarterfinal, scheduled for 04:00 ET on 17 July 2026. The market currently implies a 56% probability that Collignon advances, aligning closely with external predictive models that assign him a 57% win chance [3]. Betting exchanges reflect Collignon as the favourite with moneyline odds of -175, translating to a 63.6% implied probability, slightly higher than the crowd’s current assessment [4].

Historical comparisons in ATP quarterfinals on similar clay surfaces show that when model-implied probabilities sit between 55–60%, the favourite wins roughly 58% of matches, suggesting the current 56% line is marginally conservative [3]. In prior Gstaad editions, players with a 5–7% edge in predictive models overcame the underdog in 61% of cases, reinforcing that the market may be underpricing Collignon’s advantage [1].

Traders should monitor the official ATP draw confirmation and any pre-match injury reports released before 03:00 ET, as delays or cancellations trigger a 50-50 settlement [2]. A key catalyst is the surface condition update from the tournament organisers, which can shift win probabilities by 3–5% if rain affects clay hardness. Programmatic approaches should conditionally cancel orders if the match start time exceeds the 7-day delay threshold, ensuring exposure is limited to completed fixtures [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Bot UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Bot UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.